DemocraticIncumbent
André Carson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $419.8K
- Spent
- $963.2K
- Cash on hand
- $598.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 7th District
Carson is very likely to win: Carson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McAuley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+51.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Carson is very likely to win: Carson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Carson (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McAuley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+50.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+63
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Patrick McAuley
Real estate associate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 751,127
- People per km²
- 1,025
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 45%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 32%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
272,148 votes · D+40.5✓ ANDRé CARSON (D)68.3%
John P. Schmitz (R)29.0%
Rusty Johnson (L)2.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
266,721 two-party votes · D+42.2 · D+43.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.1%
Donald Trump (R)28.9%
2022
175,180 votes · D+37.3✓ Andrã Carson (D)67.0%
Angela Grabovsky (R)30.6%
Gavin Maple (L)2.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
282,568 votes · D+24.9✓ Andre Carson (D)62.4%
Susan Marie Smith (R)37.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
413,989 two-party votes · D+44.6 · D+40.1 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)72.3%
Donald Trump (R)27.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
217,829 votes · D+29.7✓ Andre D Carson (D)64.8%
Wayne "gunny" Harmon (R)35.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
264,666 votes · D+25.4✓ Andre Carson (D)60.0%
Catherine "cat" Ping (R)35.7%
Drew Thompson (L)4.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
271,205 two-party votes · D+38.0 · D+35.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)69.0%
Donald Trump (R)31.0%