Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 13th District
Clark is very likely to win: Clark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Clark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chavez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+47.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+58
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Clark is very likely to win: Clark wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Clark (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chavez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Jasmine Clark
State representative from the 108th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $381.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Jonathan Chavez
Former chairman of the Rockdale County Republican Party
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,323
- People per km²
- 564
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 23%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 50%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
357,632 votes · D+43.7✓ David Scott (D)71.8%
Jonathan Chavez (R)28.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
360,737 two-party votes · D+42.7 · D+44.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)71.3%
Donald Trump (R)28.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
264,616 votes · D+63.5✓ David Scott (D)81.8%
Caesar Gonzales (R)18.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
360,521 votes · D+54.8✓ David Scott (D)77.4%
Becky E Hites (R)22.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
358,513 two-party votes · D+41.7 · D+37.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)70.9%
Donald Trump (R)29.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
292,917 votes · D+52.4✓ David Scott (D)76.2%
David Callahan (R)23.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
252,833 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ David Scott (D)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
284,073 two-party votes · D+30.7 · D+28.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.4%
Donald Trump (R)34.6%