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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 23rd District
Frankel is very likely to win: Frankel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Frankel (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Adeimy (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+25.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+17 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Frankel is very likely to win: Frankel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Frankel (D)
99%
chance of winning
Adeimy (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+35
- Partisan lean
- D+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Lois Frankel
Incumbent U.S. representative from the 22nd district (previously ran in the 22nd district)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.3M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
Republican
Deborah Adeimy
Financial advisor and candidate for the 22nd district in 2022 and 2024 (previously running in the 22nd district)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $196.9K
- From individuals
- $108.7K
- Spent
- $170K
- Cash on hand
- $30.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.31 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 768,148
- People per km²
- 1,114
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 30%
- Black 24%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
374,317 votes · D+4.9✓ Jared Moskowitz (D)52.4%
Joseph "joe" Kaufman (R)47.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
335,386 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+15.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.9%
Donald Trump (R)43.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
279,049 votes · D+4.8✓ Jared Moskowitz (D)51.6%
Joe Budd (R)46.8%
Christine Scott (I)1.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
381,194 votes · D+16.4✓ Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)58.0%
Carla Spalding (R)41.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
356,443 two-party votes · D+26.8 · D+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)63.4%
Donald Trump (R)36.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
276,366 votes · D+23.8✓ Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)58.5%
Joseph "joe" Kaufman (R)36.0%
Timothy A "tim" Canova (I)5.0%
Don Endriss (I)0.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
323,120 votes · D+16.7✓ Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)56.7%
Joseph "joe" Kaufman (R)40.5%
Don Endriss (I)1.6%
Lyle Milstein (I)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
303,753 two-party votes · D+31.0 · D+28.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.5%
Donald Trump (R)34.5%