Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 24th District
FusionTenney is very likely to win: Tenney wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Ellman (D)
1%
chance of winning
Tenney (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+17.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tenney is very likely to win: Tenney wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Ellman (D)
4%
chance of winning
Tenney (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Alissa Ellman
Former program support assistant at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $416.4K
- From individuals
- $364.2K
- Spent
- $316.6K
- Cash on hand
- $99.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Claudia Tenney
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.1M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $2.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.54 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.19 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.19 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 774,412
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 88%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
359,066 votes · R+31.4✓ Claudia Tenney (R)65.7%
David Wagenhauser (D)34.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
373,244 two-party votes · R+23.2 · R+21.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Kamala Harris (D)38.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
277,175 votes · R+31.4✓ Claudia Tenney (R)65.7%
Steven Holden (D)34.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
344,126 votes · R+10.6✓ John M Katko (R)53.1%
Dana Balter (D)43.0%
Steven Williams (WF)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
370,164 two-party votes · R+20.7 · R+25.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Joe Biden (D)39.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
260,477 votes · R+5.3✓ John M Katko (R)52.6%
Dana Balter (D)47.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
302,115 votes · R+21.1✓ John Katko (R)60.5%
Colleen Deacon (D)39.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
316,402 two-party votes · R+26.0 · R+28.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.0%