Democratic
Adrian Boafo
State delegate from the 23rd district (2023–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $91.9K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 5th District
Boafo is very likely to win: Boafo wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Boafo (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chaffee (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+51
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Boafo is very likely to win: Boafo wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Boafo (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Chaffee (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chris Chaffee
Perennial candidate and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.85 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.85 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 794,681
- People per km²
- 133
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 26%of adults
- White 43%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 40%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
418,603 votes · D+35.8✓ Steny H. Hoyer (D)67.8%
Michelle Talkington (R)32.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
419,337 two-party votes · D+34.1 · D+35.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.0%
Donald Trump (R)33.0%
2022
276,920 votes · D+32.0✓ Steny H Hoyer (D)65.9%
Chris Palombi (R)33.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
398,839 votes · D+37.9✓ Steny H Hoyer (D)68.8%
Chris Palombi (R)31.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
499,288 two-party votes · D+37.0 · D+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)68.5%
Donald Trump (R)31.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
304,209 votes · D+44.4✓ Steny H Hoyer (D)70.3%
William A Devine III (R)27.1%
Patrick J Elder (G)1.3%
Jacob Pulcher (L)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
360,634 votes · D+39.3✓ Steny H Hoyer (D)67.4%
Mark Arness (R)29.4%
Jason Summers (L)3.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
371,748 two-party votes · D+31.2 · D+29.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)65.6%
Donald Trump (R)34.4%