Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Washington › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Washington's 1st District
Top twoDelBene is very likely to win: DelBene wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
DelBene (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Silva (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+39.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+31 to D+49
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
DelBene is very likely to win: DelBene wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
DelBene (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Silva (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+36.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+24 to D+48
- Partisan lean
- D+31
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Suzan DelBene
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.1M
- From individuals
- $2.1M
- Spent
- $4.2M
- Cash on hand
- $963.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Mary Silva
Candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $8.4K
- From individuals
- $2.8K
- Spent
- $7.4K
- Cash on hand
- $1.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 4.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.57 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+31: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 763,616
- People per km²
- 844
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 54%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 3%
- Asian 22%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
360,176 votes · D+26.3✓ Suzan K. Delbene (D)63.0%
Jeb Brewer (R)36.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
358,214 two-party votes · D+29.8 · D+31.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.9%
Donald Trump (R)35.1%
2022
286,666 votes · D+27.1✓ Suzan K Delbene (D)63.5%
Vincent J Cavaleri (R)36.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
426,862 votes · D+17.2✓ Suzan K Delbene (D)58.6%
Jeffrey Beeler Sr (R)41.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
402,543 two-party votes · D+32.7 · D+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.3%
Donald Trump (R)33.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
332,627 votes · D+18.5✓ Suzan Delbene (D)59.2%
Jeffrey Beeler (R)40.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
348,888 votes · D+10.9✓ Suzan K Delbene (D)55.4%
Robert J Sutherland (R)44.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
291,373 two-party votes · D+28.2 · D+26.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)64.1%
Donald Trump (R)35.9%