DemocraticIncumbent
Rashida Tlaib
Incumbent U.S. representative (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.8M
- From individuals
- $2.3M
- Spent
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3.4M
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 12th District
Tlaib is very likely to win: Tlaib wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tlaib (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hooper (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Tlaib is very likely to win: Tlaib wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Tlaib (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Hooper (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+49.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+37 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+42
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
James Hooper
Tradesman and candidate for this district in 2022 and nominee in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5K
- Spent
- $3.2K
- Cash on hand
- $7.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.89 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.89 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+42: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 753,786
- People per km²
- 1,519
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 47%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 43%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
363,499 votes · D+46.5✓ Rashida Tlaib (D)69.7%
James D. Hooper (R)25.4%
Gary Walkowicz (WCP)2.6%
Brenda K. Sanders (G)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
355,999 two-party votes · D+39.9 · D+41.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)69.9%
Donald Trump (R)30.1%
2022
278,115 votes · D+45.9✓ Rashida Tlaib (D)70.7%
Steven Elliott (R)26.2%
Gary Walkowicz (WCP)2.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
383,823 votes · D+36.8✓ Debbie Dingell (D)66.4%
Jeff Jones (R)30.7%
Gary Walkowicz (WCP)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
382,886 two-party votes · D+49.1 · D+44.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)74.5%
Donald Trump (R)25.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
294,628 votes · D+40.4✓ Debbie Dingell (D)68.1%
Jeff Jones (R)28.9%
Gary Walkowicz (WCP)2.3%
Niles Niemuth (I)0.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
328,542 votes · D+37.5✓ Debbie Dingell (D)64.3%
Jeff Jones (R)29.3%
Gary Walkowicz (WCP)2.8%
Tom Bagwell (L)2.3%
Dylan Calewarts (G)1.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
335,796 two-party votes · D+49.0 · D+46.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)74.5%
Donald Trump (R)25.5%