Democratic
Matt Little
Former state senator from the 58th district (2017–2021)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $328.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 2nd District
Little is very likely to win: Little wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Little (D)
97%
chance of winning
Pratt (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+13.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- 2in our database
Little is clearly favored to win: Little wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Little (D)
93%
chance of winning
Pratt (R)
7%
- Average margin
- D+10.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+2 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eric Pratt
State senator from the 54th district (2013–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $729.8K
- From individuals
- $450K
- Spent
- $408.5K
- Cash on hand
- $321.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.84 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.08 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Little | Pratt | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research for Little's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 9–Sep 13 | 500 LV | 52 | 40 | D+12 | D+8.0 |
| Harper Polling for Pratt's campaignR-sponsored | Jun 18–Jun 21 | 415 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 | D+12.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 13, 2026.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 741,147
- People per km²
- 158
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 44%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 74%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 7%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
417,319 votes · D+13.8✓ Angie Craig (D)55.5%
Joe Teirab (R)42.1%
Thomas William Bowman (CST)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
416,259 two-party votes · D+6.0 · D+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.0%
Donald Trump (R)47.0%
2022
325,472 votes · D+5.4✓ Angie Craig (D)50.9%
Tyler Kistner (R)45.6%
Paula M Overby (LMN)3.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
424,512 votes · D+2.4✓ Angie Craig (D)48.2%
Tyler Kistner (R)45.9%
Adam Charles Weeks (LMN)5.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
417,368 two-party votes · D+7.2 · D+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
337,968 votes · D+5.5✓ Angie Craig (D)52.7%
Jason Lewis (R)47.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
370,514 votes · R+1.9✓ Jason Lewis (R)47.0%
Angie Craig (D)45.2%
Paula Overby (I)7.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
338,142 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%