Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 11th District
Cowan is clearly favored to win: Cowan wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Harden wins Nov 3
8%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Cowan wins Nov 3
90%
Including the runoff: Harden 9% · Cowan 91% to win the seat. In a runoff, Cowan wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+10.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
Cowan is clearly favored to win: Cowan wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Harden wins Nov 3
14%
Runoff Dec 1
3%
Cowan wins Nov 3
83%
Including the runoff: Harden 16% · Cowan 84% to win the seat. In a runoff, Cowan wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+8.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Chris Harden
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $128.4K
- From individuals
- $123.3K
- Spent
- $115.2K
- Cash on hand
- $13.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
John Cowan
Neurosurgeon and candidate for the 14th district in 2020
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.8M
- From individuals
- $613.2K
- Spent
- $2.5M
- Cash on hand
- $265.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.18 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -8.96 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Harden | Cowan | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Consulting Services for Harden's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 11 | 402 LV | 42 | 40 | D+2 | R+1.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 11, 2026.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 799,046
- People per km²
- 205
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 42%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 12%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
411,139 votes · R+34.6✓ Barry Loudermilk (R)65.6%
Katy "kate" L. Stamper (D)31.9%
Travey Verhoeven (—)2.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
416,059 two-party votes · R+23.4 · R+21.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Kamala Harris (D)38.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
303,657 votes · R+25.2✓ Barry Loudermilk (R)62.6%
Antonio Daza (D)37.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
405,882 votes · R+20.9✓ Barry Loudermilk (R)60.4%
Dana Barrett (D)39.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
383,328 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Joe Biden (D)38.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
310,540 votes · R+23.6✓ Barry Loudermilk (R)61.8%
Flynn D Broady Jr (D)38.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
323,318 votes · R+34.8✓ Barry Loudermilk (R)67.4%
Don Wilson (D)32.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
302,566 two-party votes · R+32.5 · R+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.7%