DemocraticIncumbent
Kelly Morrison
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $555.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 3rd District
Morrison is very likely to win: Morrison wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morrison (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bass (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+31.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+23 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Morrison is very likely to win: Morrison wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Morrison (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Bass (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+28.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+18 to D+41
- Partisan lean
- D+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tyler Bass
Small business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.8 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 710,229
- People per km²
- 530
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 52%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 10%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
411,140 votes · D+17.0✓ Kelly Morrison (D)58.4%
Tad Jude (R)41.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
413,470 two-party votes · D+21.7 · D+23.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.9%
Donald Trump (R)39.1%
2022
333,921 votes · D+19.2✓ Dean Phillips (D)59.6%
Tom Weiler (R)40.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
443,603 votes · D+11.3✓ Dean Phillips (D)55.6%
Kendall Qualls (R)44.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
426,168 two-party votes · D+21.4 · D+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
363,949 votes · D+11.4✓ Dean Phillips (D)55.6%
Erik Paulsen (R)44.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
393,464 votes · R+13.7✓ Erik Paulsen (R)56.7%
Terri E Bonoff (D)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
353,141 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%