Democratic
Lauren Reinhold
Former federal employee
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $48.3K
- From individuals
- $43.7K
- Spent
- $43.5K
- Cash on hand
- $4.8K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Kansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas's 1st District
Mann is very likely to win: Mann wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Reinhold (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Mann (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+21.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Mann is very likely to win: Mann wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Reinhold (D)
2%
chance of winning
Mann (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+29
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tracey Mann
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $387.1K
- Spent
- $607.8K
- Cash on hand
- $2.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.93 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.93 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 724,340
- People per km²
- 6
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 53%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
304,458 votes · R+38.3✓ Tracey Mann (R)69.1%
Paul Buskirk (D)30.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
305,322 two-party votes · R+31.9 · R+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Kamala Harris (D)34.1%
2022
238,425 votes · R+35.3✓ Tracey Mann (R)67.7%
JAMES âJIMMYâ BEARD (D)32.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
292,622 votes · R+42.3✓ Tracey Mann (R)71.2%
Kali Barnett (D)28.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
337,720 two-party votes · R+27.7 · R+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Joe Biden (D)36.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
224,640 votes · R+36.3✓ Roger Marshall (R)68.1%
Alan Lapolice (D)31.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
257,971 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Roger Marshall (R)65.9%
Alan Lapolice (I)26.3%
Kerry Burt (L)7.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
277,246 two-party votes · R+37.2 · R+39.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.4%