99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Michigan's 11th District

Moss is very likely to win: Moss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Moss (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Baker (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+26.7
80% of outcomes
D+18 to D+36
Partisan lean
D+17
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Moss is very likely to win: Moss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Moss (D)
99%
chance of winning
Baker (R)
1%
Average margin
D+24.8
80% of outcomes
D+14 to D+36
Partisan lean
D+17
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+26.7R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+24.8R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Moss >99%Baker <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Moss 99%Baker 1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Jeremy Moss

President pro tempore of the Michigan Senate (2023–present) from the 7th district (2019–present)

Experience
State legislature
Raised
$1.8M
From individuals
$1.5M
Spent
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$87.2K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Ethan Baker

Mayor of Troy (2019–present)

Experience
Local office
Raised
$141.9K
From individuals
$140.9K
Spent
$21.8K
Cash on hand
$121.1K

Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentD+26.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+26.6Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Michigan andlook-alike placesD+26.9Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+26.7Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+24.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1.11
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation4.25
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean D+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+14.6D+12.3 vs. nation2020 presidentD+20.1D+15.5 vs. nation2024 presidentD+16.4D+17.9 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
779,397
People per km²
895
Adults with a B.A.+
51%
White, no degree
34%of adults
  • White 67%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 13%
  • Asian 9%
  • Other / multiracial 6%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

447,925 votes · D+19.0
✓ Haley M. Stevens (D)58.2%
Nick Somberg (R)39.6%
Douglas Campbell (G)2.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

450,725 two-party votes · D+16.4 · D+17.9 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)58.2%
Donald Trump (R)41.8%

2022

366,712 votes · D+22.6
✓ Haley M Stevens (D)61.2%
Mark Ambrose (R)38.6%

2020 Earlier district lines

450,473 votes · D+2.4
✓ Haley M Stevens (D)50.2%
Eric S Esshaki (R)47.8%
Leonard Schwartz (L)2.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

456,571 two-party votes · D+20.1 · D+15.5 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)60.0%
Donald Trump (R)40.0%

2018 Earlier district lines

350,901 votes · D+6.9
✓ Haley Stevens (D)51.8%
Lena Epstein (R)45.2%
Leonard Schwartz (L)1.7%
Cooper Nye (I)1.3%

2016 Earlier district lines

379,488 votes · R+13.7
✓ David A Trott (R)52.9%
Anil Kumar (D)40.2%
Bentivolio, Kerry (—)4.4%
Jonathan Ray Osment (L)2.5%

2016 President Vote in this district

381,175 two-party votes · D+14.6 · D+12.3 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%

Also on the ballot in Michigan

U.S. SenateAbdul El-SayedMike Rogers76%Dem.76%Dem. GovernorJocelyn BensonJohn James90%Dem.88%Dem.

Neighboring districts

MI-6Debbie DingellHeather Smiley>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MI-7William LawrenceTom BarrettD flipFlip risk60%Dem.57%Dem. MI-9Ray PooleyLisa McClain>99%Rep.99%Rep. MI-10Christina HinesMike Bouchard Jr.Flip riskFlip risk55%Dem.59%Rep. MI-12Rashida TlaibJames Hooper>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MI-13Donavan McKinneyT. P. Nykoriak>99%Dem.>99%Dem.