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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 12th District
Bilirakis is clearly favored to win: Bilirakis wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Overman (D)
15%
chance of winning
Bilirakis (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+7.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bilirakis is favored to win: Bilirakis wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Overman (D)
25%
chance of winning
Bilirakis (R)
75%
- Average margin
- R+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kimberly Overman
Former Hillsborough County commissioner (previously ran in the 15th district)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $259.9K
- From individuals
- $245.1K
- Spent
- $229.4K
- Cash on hand
- $30.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Gus Bilirakis
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $840.6K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $496.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.94 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 819,087
- People per km²
- 428
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 37%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 28%
- Black 9%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
431,436 votes · R+42.1✓ Gus M. Bilirakis (R)71.0%
Rock Aboujaoude, Jr. (D)29.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
378,715 two-party votes · R+15.6 · R+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Kamala Harris (D)42.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
322,432 votes · R+40.7✓ Gus M Bilirakis (R)70.3%
Kimberly Walker (D)29.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
453,135 votes · R+25.8✓ Gus M Bilirakis (R)62.9%
Kimberly Walker (D)37.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
443,103 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Joe Biden (D)48.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
334,918 votes · R+18.9✓ Gus Michael Bilirakis (R)58.1%
Chris Hunter (D)39.7%
Angelika Purkis (I)2.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
369,669 votes · R+37.2✓ Gus M Bilirakis (R)68.6%
Robert Matthew Tager (D)31.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
378,708 two-party votes · R+1.0 · R+3.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.5%