Democratic
Donna Miller
Cook County commissioner from the 6th district (2018–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $2.5M
- Spent
- $2.6M
- Cash on hand
- $102K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 2nd District
Miller is very likely to win: Miller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Noack (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+33 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Miller is very likely to win: Miller wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Noack (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+35
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Michael Noack
Truck driver
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.25 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+35: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 732,594
- People per km²
- 72
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 33%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 47%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
289,985 votes · D+35.1✓ Robin L. Kelly (D)67.5%
Ashley Ramos (R)32.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
293,197 two-party votes · D+34.1 · D+35.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.1%
Donald Trump (R)32.9%
2022
209,175 votes · D+34.3✓ Robin L Kelly (D)67.1%
Thomas Lynch (R)32.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
298,038 votes · D+57.6✓ Robin L Kelly (D)78.8%
Theresa J Raborn (R)21.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
334,355 two-party votes · D+39.4 · D+34.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.7%
Donald Trump (R)30.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
235,251 votes · D+62.1✓ Robin Kelly (D)81.1%
David Merkle (R)18.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
294,627 votes · D+59.6✓ Robin L Kelly (D)79.8%
John F Morrow (R)20.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
326,746 two-party votes · D+44.1 · D+41.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)72.1%
Donald Trump (R)27.9%