Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon's 1st District
FusionBonamici is very likely to win: Bonamici wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bonamici (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kahl (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+36 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bonamici is very likely to win: Bonamici wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Bonamici (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Kahl (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+40.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+29 to D+52
- Partisan lean
- D+39
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Suzanne Bonamici
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $483.1K
- Spent
- $992.3K
- Cash on hand
- $567.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Barbara Kahl
Veterinarian
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $17.3K
- From individuals
- $16.8K
- Spent
- $10.5K
- Cash on hand
- $6.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+39: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 700,288
- People per km²
- 70
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 65%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 2%
- Asian 10%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
351,991 votes · D+41.9✓ Suzanne Bonamici (D)68.6%
Bob Todd (R)28.1%
Joe Christman (L)3.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
352,958 two-party votes · D+39.1 · D+40.6 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)69.6%
Donald Trump (R)30.4%
2022
310,243 votes · D+36.0✓ Suzanne Bonamici (D)67.9%
Christopher A Mann (R)31.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
459,899 votes · D+29.4✓ Suzanne Bonamici (D)64.6%
Christopher C Christensen (R)35.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
389,930 two-party votes · D+39.3 · D+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.6%
Donald Trump (R)30.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
363,249 votes · D+33.0✓ Suzanne Bonamici (D)63.6%
John Verbeek (R)32.1%
Drew A Layda (L)4.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
378,095 votes · D+23.5✓ Suzanne Bonamici (D)59.6%
Brian J Heinrich (R)37.0%
Kyle Sheahan (L)3.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
358,076 two-party votes · D+35.0 · D+32.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.5%
Donald Trump (R)32.5%