Democratic
Lisa Kinney
Former minority leader of the Wyoming Senate
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $83.7K
- From individuals
- $82.5K
- Spent
- $56.5K
- Cash on hand
- $27.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Wyoming › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wyoming's at-large District
Gray is very likely to win: Gray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kinney (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Gray (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gray is very likely to win: Gray wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kinney (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Gray (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+39.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+51 to R+28
- Partisan lean
- R+44
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Chuck Gray
Wyoming Secretary of State (2023–present) and candidate for this seat in 2022
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $264.1K
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $167.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.46 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.61 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+44: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 582,397
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 81%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
261,548 votes · R+50.5✓ Harriet M. Hageman (R)70.6%
Kyle G. Cameron (D)23.2%
Richard Brubaker (L)3.5%
Jeffrey Haggit (CST)2.1%
Write-In (—)0.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
262,160 two-party votes · R+47.0 · R+45.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.5%
Kamala Harris (D)26.5%
2022
193,902 votes · R+47.3✓ Harriet Hageman (R)68.2%
Lynnette Greybull (D)24.4%
Richard Brubaker (L)2.8%
Write-In (—)2.3%
Marissa Joy Selvig (CST)2.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
270,892 votes · R+47.2✓ Liz Cheney (R)68.6%
Lynnette Grey Bull (D)24.6%
Richard Brubaker (L)3.7%
Jeff Haggit (CST)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
322,793 two-party votes · R+42.8 · R+47.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.4%
Joe Biden (D)28.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
201,245 votes · R+36.2✓ Liz Cheney (R)63.6%
Greg Hunter (D)29.8%
Richard Brubaker (L)3.4%
Daniel Clyde Cummings (CST)3.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
251,776 votes · R+34.8✓ Liz Cheney (R)62.0%
Ryan Greene (D)30.0%
Daniel Clyde Cummings (CST)4.1%
Lawrence Gerard Struempf (L)3.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
274,852 two-party votes · R+49.7 · R+51.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)74.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)25.2%