Democratic
Don Coover
Veterinarian
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $809.4K
- Cash on hand
- $433K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Kansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas's 2nd District
Schmidt is clearly favored to win: Schmidt wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Coover (D)
11%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+8.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schmidt is clearly favored to win: Schmidt wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Coover (D)
12%
chance of winning
Schmidt (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+10.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Derek Schmidt
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $898.1K
- Spent
- $556.9K
- Cash on hand
- $939.2K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 737,917
- People per km²
- 18
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 71%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
302,767 votes · R+19.8✓ Derek Schmidt (R)57.1%
Nancy Boyda (D)38.2%
John Hauer (L)4.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
302,078 two-party votes · R+20.1 · R+18.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Kamala Harris (D)40.0%
2022
233,520 votes · R+15.3✓ Jake Laturner (R)57.6%
Patrick Schmidt (D)42.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
336,378 votes · R+15.2✓ Jake Laturner (R)55.1%
Michelle de la Isla (D)40.6%
Robert Garrard (L)4.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
350,621 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
264,812 votes · R+0.9✓ Steve Watkins (R)47.6%
Paul Davis (D)46.8%
Kelly Standley (L)5.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
297,470 votes · R+30.3✓ Lynn Jenkins (R)60.9%
Britani Potter (D)32.6%
James Houston Bales (L)6.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
271,514 two-party votes · R+21.4 · R+23.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.3%