South Dakota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Jackley is very likely to win: Jackley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Jackley is very likely to win: Jackley wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Former South Dakota state director for USDA Rural Development (2022–2025) and former vice chair of the South Dakota Democratic Party
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
South Dakota Attorney General (2009–2019, 2023–present) and candidate for governor in 2018
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -11.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gronli | Jackley | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners for Gronli's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 26–Aug 30 | — LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 | R+10.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 30, 2026.
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.