Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 2nd District
Bishop is very likely to win: Bishop wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bishop wins Nov 3
97%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
Day wins Nov 3
1%
Including the runoff: Bishop 98% · Day 2% to win the seat. In a runoff, Bishop wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+18.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Bishop is clearly favored to win: Bishop wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Bishop wins Nov 3
91%
Runoff Dec 1
4%
Day wins Nov 3
4%
Including the runoff: Bishop 94% · Day 6% to win the seat. In a runoff, Bishop wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+15.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+27
- Partisan lean
- D+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Sanford Bishop
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $435.4K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $388.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Matt Day
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $217K
- From individuals
- $10.8K
- Spent
- $217K
- Cash on hand
- $0
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.2 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.2 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 750,344
- People per km²
- 29
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 49%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
312,500 votes · D+12.7✓ Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. (D)56.3%
A. Wayne Johnson (R)43.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
313,619 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+8.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.7%
Donald Trump (R)46.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
241,340 votes · D+9.9✓ Sanford D Bishop, Jr (D)55.0%
Chris West (R)45.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
273,017 votes · D+18.2✓ Sanford D Bishop Jr (D)59.1%
Don Cole (R)40.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
316,046 two-party votes · D+10.1 · D+5.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.0%
Donald Trump (R)45.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
229,171 votes · D+19.3✓ Sanford Bishop (D)59.6%
Herman West Jr (R)40.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
242,599 votes · D+22.5✓ Sanford D Bishop Jr (D)61.2%
Greg Duke (R)38.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
277,859 two-party votes · D+8.8 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.4%
Donald Trump (R)45.6%