Democratic
Maria Jukic
Former Euclid City Council member
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $63K
- From individuals
- $62.6K
- Spent
- $19.5K
- Cash on hand
- $33.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 14th District
Joyce is very likely to win: Joyce wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Jukic (D)
4%
chance of winning
Joyce (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+12.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Joyce is clearly favored to win: Joyce wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Jukic (D)
9%
chance of winning
Joyce (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+11.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Joyce
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $383.8K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $3.1M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 787,430
- People per km²
- 76
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
383,858 votes · R+26.8✓ David P. Joyce (R)63.4%
Brian Bob Kenderes (D)36.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
409,994 two-party votes · R+20.5 · R+19.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.3%
Kamala Harris (D)39.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
297,028 votes · R+23.5✓ David P Joyce (R)61.7%
Matt Kilboy (D)38.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
397,450 votes · R+20.2✓ David P Joyce (R)60.1%
Hillary O'Connor Mueri (D)39.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
417,166 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
307,358 votes · R+10.5✓ David P Joyce (R)55.2%
Betsy Rader (D)44.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
350,269 votes · R+25.2✓ David P Joyce (R)62.6%
Michael Wager (D)37.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
367,987 two-party votes · R+16.6 · R+18.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.7%