Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 7th District
McCormick is clearly favored to win: McCormick wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Kozycki wins Nov 3
8%
Runoff Dec 1
2%
McCormick wins Nov 3
89%
Including the runoff: Kozycki 9% · McCormick 91% to win the seat. In a runoff, McCormick wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- 2in our database
McCormick is clearly favored to win: McCormick wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Kozycki wins Nov 3
16%
Runoff Dec 1
3%
McCormick wins Nov 3
80%
Including the runoff: Kozycki 18% · McCormick 82% to win the seat. In a runoff, McCormick wins 50% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- 2in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tony Kozycki
- Raised
- $883.5K
- From individuals
- $155.8K
- Spent
- $200.1K
- Cash on hand
- $683.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Rich McCormick
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $457.9K
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.28 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.53 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Kozycki | McCormick | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/20 Insight for Kozycki's campaignD-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 9 | 457 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | R+1.8 |
| 20/20 Insight for Kozycki's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 20–Aug 26 | 445 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | R+6.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 9, 2026.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 782,013
- People per km²
- 261
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 58%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 8%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
425,439 votes · R+29.7✓ Richard McCormick (R)64.9%
Bob Christian (D)35.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
428,337 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Kamala Harris (D)38.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
234,339 votes · D+22.1✓ Lucy McBath (D)61.0%
Mark Gonsalves (R)38.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
371,464 votes · D+2.8✓ Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)51.4%
Rich McCormick (R)48.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
402,860 two-party votes · R+19.5 · R+24.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
280,441 votes · R+0.1✓ Rob Woodall (R)50.1%
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)49.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
288,301 votes · R+20.8✓ Rob Woodall (R)60.4%
Rashid Malik (D)39.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
304,174 two-party votes · R+31.6 · R+33.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.2%