Democratic
Katy Tyndell
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $546K
- From individuals
- $529.2K
- Spent
- $361.1K
- Cash on hand
- $185K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Kansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kansas's 4th District
Estes is very likely to win: Estes wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Tyndell (D)
2%
chance of winning
Estes (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Estes is very likely to win: Estes wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Tyndell (D)
4%
chance of winning
Estes (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+16.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.33 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.15 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.15 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 739,994
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 70%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 6%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
305,097 votes · R+30.1✓ Ron Estes (R)65.0%
Esau Freeman (D)35.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
306,214 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.8%
Kamala Harris (D)38.2%
2022
228,740 votes · R+26.7✓ Ron Estes (R)63.3%
Bob Hernandez (D)36.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
319,825 votes · R+27.3✓ Ron Estes (R)63.6%
Laura Lombard (D)36.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
335,110 two-party votes · R+23.3 · R+27.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.7%
Joe Biden (D)38.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
241,969 votes · R+18.7✓ Ron Estes (R)59.3%
James A Thompson (D)40.6%
2017 specialEarlier district lines
122,594 votes · R+6.3✓ Estes, Ron (R)52.2%
Thompson, James (D)46.0%
Rockhold, Chris (L)1.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
262,693 two-party votes · R+30.0 · R+32.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.0%