Democratic
Colby Watson
Federal contractor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $53.1K
- From individuals
- $22.9K
- Spent
- $45.7K
- Cash on hand
- $7.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 8th District
Harris is very likely to win: Harris wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Watson (D)
3%
chance of winning
Harris (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Harris is clearly favored to win: Harris wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Watson (D)
12%
chance of winning
Harris (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mark Harris
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $887.2K
- Spent
- $739.7K
- Cash on hand
- $534.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.93 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 769,484
- People per km²
- 79
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 60%
- Hispanic 10%
- Black 17%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 10%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
400,324 votes · R+19.2✓ Mark Harris (R)59.6%
Justin E. Dues (D)40.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
404,453 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+18.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Kamala Harris (D)40.2%
2022 Earlier district lines
263,190 votes · R+39.8✓ Dan Bishop (R)69.9%
Scott Huffman (D)30.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
761,220 votes · R+6.6✓ Richard Hudson (R)53.3%
Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D)46.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
445,793 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
255,428 votes · R+10.7✓ Richard Hudson (R)55.3%
Frank McNeill (D)44.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
323,045 votes · R+17.5✓ Richard Hudson (R)58.8%
Thomas Mills (D)41.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
363,927 two-party votes · R+20.9 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.6%