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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas's 33rd District

Allred is very likely to win: Allred wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Allred (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gillespie (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+45.4
80% of outcomes
D+36 to D+56
Partisan lean
D+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Allred is very likely to win: Allred wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Allred (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Gillespie (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+45.7
80% of outcomes
D+33 to D+59
Partisan lean
D+37
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+45.4R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60
D+45.7R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Allred >99%Gillespie <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Allred >99%Gillespie <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Colin Allred

Former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 (previously ran for U.S. Senate)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$7.4M
From individuals
$3.1M
Spent
$7.3M
Cash on hand
$159.9K

Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Southwest adjustment
−1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Southwest adjustmentD+45.1Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+45.3Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Texas and look-alikeplacesD+45.6Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+45.4Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+45.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)2.06
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean D+37: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+45.9D+43.7 vs. nation2020 presidentD+47.2D+42.7 vs. nation2024 presidentD+33.4D+34.9 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
766,141
People per km²
1,466
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
11%of adults
  • White 21%
  • Hispanic 55%
  • Black 16%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 2%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024 Earlier district lines

166,153 votes · D+37.6
✓ Marc A. Veasey (D)68.8%
Patrick David Gillespie (R)31.2%

2024 President Vote in this district

202,883 two-party votes · D+33.4 · D+34.9 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)66.7%
Donald Trump (R)33.3%

2022 Earlier district lines

114,030 votes · D+47.5
✓ Marc A Veasey (D)72.0%
Patrick David Gillespie (R)25.6%
Ken Ashby (L)2.4%

2020 Earlier district lines

157,606 votes · D+45.3
✓ Marc A Veasey (D)66.8%
Fabian Cordova Vasquez (R)25.2%
Carlos Quintanilla (I)5.1%
Jason Reeves (L)1.6%
Rene Welton (I)1.3%

2020 President Vote in this district

356,083 two-party votes · D+47.2 · D+42.7 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)73.6%
Donald Trump (R)26.4%

2018 Earlier district lines

119,224 votes · D+55.3
✓ Marc Veasey (D)76.2%
Willie Billups (R)21.9%
Jason Reeves (L)1.9%

2016 Earlier district lines

126,369 votes · D+47.4
✓ Marc A Veasey (D)73.7%
M Mark Mitchell (R)26.3%

2016 President Vote in this district

233,434 two-party votes · D+45.9 · D+43.7 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.0%
Donald Trump (R)27.0%

Also on the ballot in Texas

U.S. SenateJames TalaricoKen PaxtonD flipD flip70%Dem.61%Dem. GovernorGina HinojosaGreg Abbott68%Rep.64%Rep.

Neighboring districts

TX-5Chelsey HockettLance Gooden96%Rep.90%Rep. TX-6Danny MintonJake Ellzey99%Rep.94%Rep. TX-24Kevin BurgeBeth Van Duyne84%Rep.75%Rep. TX-30Frederick Haynes IIIEverett Jackson>99%Dem.>99%Dem.