Democratic
Beth Macy
Author and journalist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.7M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $838.9K
- Cash on hand
- $847.5K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 6th District
Cline is very likely to win: Cline wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Macy (D)
1%
chance of winning
Cline (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+20.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+31 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- 1in our database
Cline is very likely to win: Cline wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Macy (D)
1%
chance of winning
Cline (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+24
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.55 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.55 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Macy | Cline | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 791 LV | 29 | 59 | R+30 | R+30.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 30, 2026.
The district
Lean R+24: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 795,343
- People per km²
- 49
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 8%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
407,035 votes · R+28.9✓ Ben Cline (R)63.1%
Ken L. Mitchell (D)34.8%
Robert C. "robby" Wells, Jr. (I)2.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,010 two-party votes · R+24.2 · R+22.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Kamala Harris (D)37.9%
2022
269,231 votes · R+29.0✓ Ben Cline (R)64.4%
Jennifer Lynn Lewis (D)35.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
381,831 votes · R+29.3✓ Ben Cline (R)64.6%
Nicholas A Betts (D)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
404,668 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+27.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Joe Biden (D)38.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
281,408 votes · R+19.5✓ Ben L Cline (R)59.7%
Jennifer Lynn Lewis (D)40.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
338,456 votes · R+33.6✓ Bob Goodlatte (R)66.6%
Kai E Degner (D)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
369,931 two-party votes · R+25.1 · R+27.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.4%