Democratic
Frederick Haynes III
Pastor and former president and CEO of Rainbow/PUSH
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $657K
- From individuals
- $566.8K
- Spent
- $457K
- Cash on hand
- $200.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 30th District
Haynes is very likely to win: Haynes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haynes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jackson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+57.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+48 to D+67
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Haynes is very likely to win: Haynes wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Haynes (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jackson (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+59.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+47 to D+72
- Partisan lean
- D+51
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Everett Jackson
Business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $17.2K
- From individuals
- $17K
- Spent
- $16.1K
- Cash on hand
- $1.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+51: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,366
- People per km²
- 887
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 11%of adults
- White 14%
- Hispanic 37%
- Black 42%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
232,825 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Jasmine Crockett (D)84.9%
Jrmar "j J" Jefferson (L)15.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
239,810 two-party votes · D+47.8 · D+49.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.9%
Donald Trump (R)26.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
180,513 votes · D+55.0✓ Jasmine Crockett (D)74.7%
James Rodgers (R)21.7%
Zachariah Manning (I)2.1%
Phil Gray (L)1.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
264,464 votes · D+61.6✓ Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)77.5%
Tre Pennie (R)18.4%
Eric Williams (I)4.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
353,472 two-party votes · D+60.2 · D+55.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)80.1%
Donald Trump (R)19.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
183,174 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)91.1%
Shawn Jones (L)8.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
218,826 votes · D+60.8✓ Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)77.9%
Charles Lingerfelt (R)19.0%
Jarrett R Woods (L)2.2%
Thom Prentice (G)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
252,202 two-party votes · D+60.9 · D+58.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)80.5%
Donald Trump (R)19.5%