DemocraticIncumbent
Dina Titus
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $892.4K
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $661.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Nevada › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Nevada's 1st District
Titus is very likely to win: Titus wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Titus (D)
96%
chance of winning
Buck (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+12.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Titus is clearly favored to win: Titus wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Titus (D)
87%
chance of winning
Buck (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+10.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Carrie Buck
State senator from the 5th district (2020–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $670.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.52 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.64 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.64 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 752,065
- People per km²
- 285
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 37%
- Black 9%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
322,875 votes · D+7.8✓ Dina Titus (D)52.0%
Mark Robertson (R)44.5%
Ron "ron Q." Quince (I)1.0%
William Hoge (I)0.8%
David Havlicek (L)0.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
329,141 two-party votes · D+2.3 · D+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%
2022
224,321 votes · D+5.8✓ Dina Titus (D)51.6%
Mark Robertson (R)46.0%
Ken Cavanaugh (L)2.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
223,202 votes · D+29.8✓ Dina Titus (D)61.8%
Joyce Bentley (R)33.4%
Kamau Bakari (I)2.8%
Robert van Strawder Jr (L)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
328,171 two-party votes · D+7.9 · D+3.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
152,201 votes · D+36.4✓ Dina Titus (D)66.2%
Joyce Bentley (R)30.9%
Dan Garfield (I)1.6%
Robert Strawder (L)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
188,341 votes · D+36.5✓ Dina Titus (D)61.9%
Mary Perry (R)28.8%
Reuben D'Silva (I)7.4%
Kamau A Bakari (I)2.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
257,077 two-party votes · D+9.8 · D+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.9%
Donald Trump (R)45.1%