Democratic
Terri Green
Retired pathologist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $111.9K
- From individuals
- $84.9K
- Spent
- $105.9K
- Cash on hand
- $6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arkansas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arkansas's 1st District
Crawford is very likely to win: Crawford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Green (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Crawford (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+29
- Partisan lean
- R+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Crawford is very likely to win: Crawford wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Green (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Crawford (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+37.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+49 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+45
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Rick Crawford
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $388.7K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $874.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.84 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+45: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 761,807
- People per km²
- 14
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 18%
- White, no degree
- 61%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 17%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
267,177 votes · R+50.5✓ Eric A. "rick" Crawford (R)72.9%
Rodney Govens (D)24.0%
Steve G. Parsons (L)3.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
268,780 two-party votes · R+46.0 · R+44.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.0%
Kamala Harris (D)27.0%
2022
208,372 votes · R+47.6✓ ERIC A âRICKâ CRAWFORD (R)73.8%
Monte Hodges (D)26.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
237,596 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Eric A "rick" Crawford (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
278,819 two-party votes · R+42.2 · R+46.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.1%
Joe Biden (D)28.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
201,245 votes · R+41.1✓ Rick Crawford (R)68.9%
Chintan Desai (D)28.8%
Elvis Presley (L)2.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
241,047 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Eric A "rick" Crawford (R)76.3%
Mark West (L)23.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
261,340 two-party votes · R+36.7 · R+38.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%