DemocraticIncumbent
Glenn Ivey
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $855.3K
- From individuals
- $399.3K
- Spent
- $677.6K
- Cash on hand
- $483.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 4th District
Ivey is very likely to win: Ivey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ivey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McDermott (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+83.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+74 to D+93
- Partisan lean
- D+79
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ivey is very likely to win: Ivey wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Ivey (D)
>99%
chance of winning
McDermott (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+85.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+73 to D+98
- Partisan lean
- D+79
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
George McDermott
Entrepreneur and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Green
Sam Husseini
Communications director of the Institute for Public Accuracy
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.67 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.07 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.07 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+79: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 763,478
- People per km²
- 1,314
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 4%of adults
- White 10%
- Hispanic 27%
- Black 54%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
270,970 votes · D+77.4✓ Glenn Ivey (D)88.4%
George McDermott (R)11.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
274,012 two-party votes · D+75.7 · D+77.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)87.8%
Donald Trump (R)12.2%
2022
160,009 votes · D+80.7✓ Glenn F Ivey (D)90.1%
Jeff Warner (R)9.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
354,529 votes · D+59.5✓ Anthony G Brown (D)79.6%
George E McDermott (R)20.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
357,848 two-party votes · D+82.4 · D+77.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)91.2%
Donald Trump (R)8.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
268,583 votes · D+59.4✓ Anthony G Brown (D)78.1%
George McDermott (R)19.9%
Dave Bishop (L)2.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
320,650 votes · D+55.1✓ Anthony G Brown (D)74.1%
George E McDermott (R)21.4%
Kamesha T Clark (G)2.6%
Benjamin Lee Krause (L)1.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
371,301 two-party votes · D+84.2 · D+82.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)92.1%
Donald Trump (R)7.9%