Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 23rd District
Top twoObernolte is very likely to win: Obernolte wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hodge (D)
4%
chance of winning
Obernolte (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+13.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Obernolte is clearly favored to win: Obernolte wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Hodge (D)
12%
chance of winning
Obernolte (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+10.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Clinical social worker
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $122.5K
- From individuals
- $113.3K
- Spent
- $105.1K
- Cash on hand
- $17.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Jay Obernolte
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.8M
- From individuals
- $615K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 851,289
- People per km²
- 15
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 36%
- Hispanic 46%
- Black 8%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
264,849 votes · R+20.3✓ Jay Obernolte (R)60.1%
Derek Marshall (D)39.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
271,125 two-party votes · R+19.8 · R+18.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.9%
Kamala Harris (D)40.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
169,105 votes · R+22.1✓ Jay Obernolte (R)61.0%
Derek Marshall (D)39.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
306,118 votes · R+24.3✓ Kevin McCarthy (R)62.1%
Kim Mangone (D)37.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
298,013 two-party votes · R+12.2 · R+16.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.1%
Joe Biden (D)43.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
205,774 votes · R+27.4✓ Kevin McCarthy (R)63.7%
Tatiana Matta (D)36.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
241,584 votes · R+38.4✓ Kevin McCarthy (R)69.2%
Wendy Reed (D)30.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
228,409 two-party votes · R+17.1 · R+19.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.4%
Also on the ballot in California
Neighboring districts
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