Democratic
Ellie Gilbreath
Lawyer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $161.2K
- Spent
- $119K
- Cash on hand
- $42.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Idaho › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho's 2nd District
Simpson is very likely to win: Simpson wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gilbreath (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Simpson (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+21.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Simpson is very likely to win: Simpson wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Gilbreath (D)
2%
chance of winning
Simpson (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+27
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Simpson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $590.1K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $284.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.79 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.79 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+27: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 944,778
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 78%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
407,462 votes · R+32.9✓ Michael K. Simpson (R)61.4%
David Roth (D)31.0%
Todd Corsetti (L)5.2%
Idaho Sierra Law (—)2.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
408,841 two-party votes · R+27.5 · R+26.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.8%
Kamala Harris (D)36.2%
2022
538,508 votes · R+27.0✓ Michael K Simpson (R)63.5%
Wendy Norman (D)36.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
391,333 votes · R+33.8✓ Michael K Simpson (R)64.1%
C Aaron Swisher (D)31.7%
Pro-Life (CST)2.2%
Idaho Sierra Law (L)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
407,310 two-party votes · R+23.7 · R+28.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.9%
Joe Biden (D)38.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
280,655 votes · R+21.3✓ Mike Simpson (R)60.7%
Aaron Swisher (D)39.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
326,179 votes · R+36.3✓ Michael K Simpson (R)62.9%
Jennifer Martinez (D)29.4%
Anthony Tomkins (CST)7.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
292,419 two-party votes · R+29.0 · R+31.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)35.5%