Democratic
Bernadette Greene-Placentia
Truck driver
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $236.5K
- From individuals
- $236.4K
- Spent
- $23.3K
- Cash on hand
- $21.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona's 8th District
Hamadeh is clearly favored to win: Hamadeh wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Greene-Placentia (D)
12%
chance of winning
Hamadeh (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+8.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Hamadeh is favored to win: Hamadeh wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Greene-Placentia (D)
21%
chance of winning
Hamadeh (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Abraham Hamadeh
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $646.8K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $137.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 805,443
- People per km²
- 537
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 23%
- Black 4%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
369,364 votes · R+13.0✓ Abraham "abe" Hamadeh (R)56.4%
Gregory Whitten (D)43.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
388,299 two-party votes · R+16.5 · R+15.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022
232,542 votes · R+94.9✓ Debbie Lesko (R)85.0%
Write-In (—)7.5%
Not Qualified (—)4.4%
Jeremy Spreitzer (D)2.2%
Alixandria Guzman (D)0.9%
2020 Earlier district lines
422,449 votes · R+19.1✓ Debbie Lesko (R)59.6%
Michael Muscato (D)40.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
399,645 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+18.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Joe Biden (D)43.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
304,767 votes · R+10.9✓ Debbie Lesko (R)55.4%
Hiral Tipirneni (D)44.5%
2018 specialEarlier district lines
183,343 votes · R+4.7✓ Lesko, Debbie (R)52.4%
Tipirneni, Hiral (D)47.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
292,570 two-party votes · R+20.0 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.0%