DemocraticIncumbent
Adelita Grijalva
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $469.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona's 7th District
Grijalva is very likely to win: Grijalva wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grijalva (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Butierez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+34.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+25 to D+44
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Grijalva is very likely to win: Grijalva wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Grijalva (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Butierez (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+32.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+45
- Partisan lean
- D+25
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Daniel Butierez
Painting contractor and nominee for this district in 2024 and 2025
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $232.2K
- From individuals
- $47.8K
- Spent
- $220.4K
- Cash on hand
- $12.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.03 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.59 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+25: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 807,177
- People per km²
- 20
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 22%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 29%
- Hispanic 60%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2025 special
101,776 votes · D+40.2✓ Adelita Grijalva (D)68.9%
Daniel Butierez (R)29.4%
Eduardo Quintana (G)1.1%
Richard Grayson (OTH)0.5%
2024
271,544 votes · D+26.9✓ RAúL M. GRIJALVA (D)63.3%
Daniel Francis Butierez, Sr. (R)36.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
278,446 two-party votes · D+22.4 · D+23.9 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)61.2%
Donald Trump (R)38.8%
2022
195,862 votes · D+29.1✓ Raãl M Grijalva (D)64.5%
Luis Pozzolo (R)35.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
215,678 votes · D+53.4✓ Ruben Gallego (D)76.7%
Joshua Barnett (R)23.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
295,970 two-party votes · D+32.4 · D+27.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)66.2%
Donald Trump (R)33.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
133,396 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Ruben Gallego (D)84.7%
Gary Swing (G)14.0%
Writein (—)1.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
223,527 two-party votes · D+34.9 · D+32.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)67.4%
Donald Trump (R)32.6%