Democratic
Kaylee Peterson
Artisan jeweler and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $271.6K
- From individuals
- $248K
- Spent
- $253.3K
- Cash on hand
- $23.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Idaho › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Idaho's 1st District
Fulcher is very likely to win: Fulcher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Peterson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fulcher (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+31.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+44
- Polls
- 4in our database
Fulcher is very likely to win: Fulcher wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Peterson (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fulcher (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+32.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+22
- Partisan lean
- R+44
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Russ Fulcher
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $824.2K
- From individuals
- $429.7K
- Spent
- $736.3K
- Cash on hand
- $267.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Independent
Sarah Zabel
Author and retired U.S. Air Force major general
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $231.5K
- From individuals
- $51.6K
- Spent
- $180.6K
- Cash on hand
- $50.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.4 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.36 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.36 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Peterson | Fulcher | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Poll conducted behalf of John Stegner's campaign, who is an independent running for GovernorD-sponsored | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 606 LV | 27 | 48 | R+21 | R+32.7 |
| Change Research for Poll conducted behalf of John Stegner's campaign, who is an independent running for GovernorD-sponsored | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 606 LV | — | 46 | — | R+32.7 |
| SurveyUSA for Zabel's campaign | Jul 7–Jul 14 | 480 LV | 35 | 45 | R+10 | R+12.9 |
| SurveyUSA for Zabel's campaign | Jul 7–Jul 14 | 478 LV | 39 | 44 | R+5 | R+12.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 30, 2026.
The district
Lean R+44: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 989,484
- People per km²
- 10
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
466,242 votes · R+47.2✓ Russ Fulcher (R)71.0%
Kaylee Peterson (D)25.4%
Matt Loesby (L)2.1%
Brendan J. Gomez (CST)1.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
466,239 two-party votes · R+46.0 · R+44.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.0%
Kamala Harris (D)27.0%
2022
624,884 votes · R+46.1✓ Russ Fulcher (R)71.3%
Kaylee Peterson (D)26.3%
Darian Drake (L)2.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
458,576 votes · R+40.6✓ Russ Fulcher (R)67.8%
Rudy Soto (D)28.6%
Joe Evans (L)3.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
433,823 two-party votes · R+39.3 · R+43.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.7%
Joe Biden (D)30.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
315,069 votes · R+34.2✓ Russ Fulcher (R)62.8%
Cristina McNeil (D)30.8%
Natalie M Fleming (I)2.0%
W Scott Howard (L)1.7%
Paul Farmer (I)1.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
355,293 votes · R+36.4✓ Raul R Labrador (R)68.2%
James Piotrowski (D)31.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
306,397 two-party votes · R+43.9 · R+46.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)28.0%