All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana's 5th District
All-partyEchols is very likely to win: Echols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Echols (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+27.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Echols is very likely to win: Echols wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Moore wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 12
1%
Echols wins Nov 3
99%
Including the runoff: Moore 1% · Echols 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Echols wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+26.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticCandidate
Dan McKay
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $90K
- From individuals
- $48.5K
- Spent
- $109.1K
- Cash on hand
- -$19.1K
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Patricia Moore
State representative from the 17th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $22.1K
- From individuals
- $10.8K
- Spent
- $9.3K
- Cash on hand
- $12.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
DemocraticCandidate
Antonio Wilson
Community activist
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
RepublicanCandidate
Michael Echols
Louisiana State House majority leader from the 14th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $3.2M
- From individuals
- $541.6K
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $972.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Misti Cordell
Member of the Louisiana Board of Regents
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $632.6K
- From individuals
- $403.5K
- Spent
- $457.8K
- Cash on hand
- $174.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanCandidate
Gabe Firment
State representative from the 22nd district (2020–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $49K
- Spent
- $1.4K
- Cash on hand
- $47.6K
Money: FEC, through Jul 18, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 763,995
- People per km²
- 19
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 21%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 34%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
319,851 votes · R+41.6✓ Julia Letlow (R)62.9%
Michael Vallien, Jr. (D)25.9%
M. V. "vinny" Mendoza (R)11.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
316,759 two-party votes · R+34.5 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.2%
Kamala Harris (D)32.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
223,553 votes · R+62.3✓ Julia Letlow (R)67.6%
OSCAR âOMARâ DANTZLER (D)15.7%
Walter Earl Huff (D)8.7%
Allen Guillory (R)5.4%
Hunter Pullen (R)2.6%
2021 specialEarlier district lines
103,616 votes · R+40.8✓ Letlow, Julia (R)64.9%
Christophe, Sandra "Candy" (D)27.3%
Conerly, Chad (R)5.3%
Lansden, Robert (R)0.9%
2020 runoffEarlier district lines
79,307 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Letlow, Luke J. (R)62.0%
Harris, Lance (R)38.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
435,090 votes · R+49.2✓ Luke J Letlow (R)34.3%
Lance Harris (R)29.9%
Sandra "candy" Christophe (D)11.7%
Martin Lemelle Jr (D)7.4%
"scotty" Robinson (R)5.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
365,186 two-party votes · R+29.9 · R+34.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Joe Biden (D)35.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
356,106 two-party votes · R+30.8 · R+33.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.6%