Democratic
Megan Wingfield
Mechanic
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $7.5K
- Spent
- $6.3K
- Cash on hand
- $1.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky's 2nd District
Guthrie is very likely to win: Guthrie wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wingfield (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Guthrie (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+44 to R+26
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Guthrie is very likely to win: Guthrie wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wingfield (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Guthrie (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+41
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brett Guthrie
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.7M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $3.4M
- Cash on hand
- $1.7M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.8 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.8 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+41: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 769,562
- People per km²
- 40
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 66%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
345,855 votes · R+46.2✓ Brett Guthrie (R)73.1%
Hank Linderman (D)26.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
346,374 two-party votes · R+41.9 · R+40.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.0%
Kamala Harris (D)29.0%
2022
237,253 votes · R+43.7✓ Brett Guthrie (R)71.9%
Hank Linderman (D)28.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
360,385 votes · R+46.0✓ Brett Guthrie (R)71.0%
Hank Linderman (D)26.3%
Robert Lee Perry (L)2.1%
Lewis Carter (OTH)0.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
356,888 two-party votes · R+37.6 · R+42.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Joe Biden (D)31.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
257,345 votes · R+36.5✓ S Brett Guthrie (R)66.7%
Hank Linderman (D)31.1%
Thomas A Loecken (I)2.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
251,917 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Brett Guthrie (R)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
334,189 two-party votes · R+41.8 · R+44.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.1%