Democratic
Rachel Wallace
Former chief of staff in the Office of Management and Budget
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $697.9K
- From individuals
- $655.1K
- Spent
- $311K
- Cash on hand
- $386.9K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 9th District
Meuser is very likely to win: Meuser wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wallace (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Meuser (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+21
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Meuser is very likely to win: Meuser wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Wallace (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Meuser (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+29.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+38
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Dan Meuser
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $962.2K
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $136.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.53 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.53 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 754,670
- People per km²
- 47
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 69%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
391,735 votes · R+41.0✓ Daniel Meuser (R)70.5%
Amanda Waldman (D)29.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
393,631 two-party votes · R+38.3 · R+36.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)69.1%
Kamala Harris (D)30.9%
2022
301,807 votes · R+38.6✓ Daniel Meuser (R)69.3%
Amanda R Waldman (D)30.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
351,268 votes · R+32.7✓ Daniel Philip Meuser (R)66.3%
Gary Steven Wegman (D)33.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
400,817 two-party votes · R+36.9 · R+41.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Joe Biden (D)31.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,927 votes · R+19.5✓ Daniel Meuser (R)59.7%
Dennis Wolff (D)40.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
294,565 votes · R+26.7✓ Bill Shuster (R)63.3%
Art Halvorson (D)36.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
331,665 two-party votes · R+41.1 · R+43.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.5%
Also on the ballot in Pennsylvania
Neighboring districts
PA-4Madeleine DeanAurora Stuski>99%Dem.99%Dem. PA-6Chrissy HoulahanMarty Young>99%Dem.98%Dem. PA-7Bob BrooksRyan MackenzieD flipD flip82%Dem.79%Dem. PA-8Paige CognettiRob BresnahanFlip riskFlip risk53%Dem.54%Rep. PA-10Janelle StelsonScott PerryD flipD flip72%Dem.66%Dem. PA-11Nancy MannionLloyd Smucker96%Rep.92%Rep. PA-13Beth FarnhamJohn Joyce>99%Rep.>99%Rep. PA-15Ray BilgerGlenn Thompson>99%Rep.>99%Rep.