Democratic
Heidi Kuhn
Shelby County Criminal Court clerk
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $97.3K
- From individuals
- $93.8K
- Spent
- $76.8K
- Cash on hand
- $20.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 8th District
Kustoff is clearly favored to win: Kustoff wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Kuhn (D)
6%
chance of winning
Kustoff (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+11.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+20 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Kustoff is clearly favored to win: Kustoff wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Kuhn (D)
9%
chance of winning
Kustoff (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+12.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+19
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
David Kustoff
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.92 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+19: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 772,965
- People per km²
- 59
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 27%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
332,315 votes · R+47.7✓ David Kustoff (R)72.3%
Sarah Freeman (D)25.6%
James Hart (I)2.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
314,562 two-party votes · R+20.4 · R+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.2%
Kamala Harris (D)39.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
210,315 votes · R+50.6✓ David Kustoff (R)74.0%
Lynnette P Williams (D)24.3%
James Hart (I)1.2%
Ronnie Henley (I)0.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
331,853 votes · R+39.8✓ David Kustoff (R)68.5%
Erika Stotts Pearson (D)29.5%
James Hart (I)1.1%
Jon Dillard (I)0.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
340,782 two-party votes · R+15.8 · R+20.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Joe Biden (D)42.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
248,345 votes · R+38.4✓ David Kustoff (R)67.7%
Erika Stotts Pearson (D)30.1%
James Hart (I)2.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
282,733 votes · R+46.5✓ David Kustoff (R)68.8%
Rickey Hobson (D)25.1%
Shelia L Godwin (I)2.3%
James Hart (I)1.4%
Adrian M Montague (I)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,799 two-party votes · R+22.3 · R+24.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.8%