Democratic
Angela Rodriguez Prilliman
Entrepreneur
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 12th District
Goldman is very likely to win: Goldman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Prilliman (D)
3%
chance of winning
Goldman (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Goldman is clearly favored to win: Goldman wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Prilliman (D)
6%
chance of winning
Goldman (R)
94%
- Average margin
- R+14.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Craig Goldman
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $407.7K
- Spent
- $917.9K
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.32 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 797,611
- People per km²
- 315
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 34%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 32%
- Black 10%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
339,718 votes · R+26.9✓ Craig Goldman (R)63.5%
Trey J. Hunt (D)36.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
309,037 two-party votes · R+24.3 · R+22.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.1%
Kamala Harris (D)37.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
237,979 votes · R+28.5✓ Kay Granger (R)64.3%
Trey J Hunt (D)35.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
367,021 votes · R+31.7✓ Kay Granger (R)63.7%
Lisa Welch (D)33.0%
Trey Holcomb (L)3.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
317,783 two-party votes · R+17.2 · R+21.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.6%
Joe Biden (D)41.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
268,491 votes · R+30.9✓ Kay Granger (R)64.3%
Vanessa Adia (D)33.9%
Jacob Leddy (L)1.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
283,115 votes · R+44.2✓ Kay Granger (R)69.4%
Bill Bradshaw (D)26.9%
Ed Colliver (L)3.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
230,153 two-party votes · R+24.8 · R+27.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.6%