Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
Washington › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Washington's 5th District
Top twoBaumgartner is clearly favored to win: Baumgartner wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Conroy (D)
10%
chance of winning
Baumgartner (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 1in our database
Baumgartner is favored to win: Baumgartner wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Conroy (D)
21%
chance of winning
Baumgartner (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+5.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+15 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+11
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Carmela Conroy
Former chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party and runner-up for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $396.2K
- From individuals
- $363.2K
- Spent
- $334.9K
- Cash on hand
- $74.5K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Baumgartner
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1.6M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $807.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.59 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.59 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Conroy | Baumgartner | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research for Working Class Heroes Fund PAC, which is affiliated with Nate Powell's campaignD-sponsored | May 18–May 25 | 578 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | R+7.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: May 25, 2026.
The district
Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 793,903
- People per km²
- 16
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
396,838 votes · R+21.3✓ Michael Baumgartner (R)60.5%
Carmela Conroy (D)39.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
391,218 two-party votes · R+11.1 · R+9.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Kamala Harris (D)44.5%
2022
317,006 votes · R+19.3✓ Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)59.5%
Natasha Hill (D)40.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
404,360 votes · R+22.8✓ Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)61.3%
Dave Wilson (D)38.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
461,941 two-party votes · R+11.1 · R+15.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.5%
Joe Biden (D)44.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
320,008 votes · R+9.5✓ Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)54.7%
Lisa Brown (D)45.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
323,374 votes · R+19.2✓ Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)59.6%
Joe Pakootas (D)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
340,473 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.9%