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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 17th District
Steube is very likely to win: Steube wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Montavon (D)
3%
chance of winning
Steube (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Steube is clearly favored to win: Steube wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Montavon (D)
8%
chance of winning
Steube (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+12.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Matthew Montavon
Retired United Nations official and candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $148.2K
- From individuals
- $109.3K
- Spent
- $115.2K
- Cash on hand
- $33K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Greg Steube
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $534.5K
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $2.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.63 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 822,043
- People per km²
- 174
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 73%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
456,297 votes · R+27.8✓ W. Gregory Steube (R)63.9%
Manny Lopez (D)36.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
443,047 two-party votes · R+22.0 · R+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.0%
Kamala Harris (D)39.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
348,506 votes · R+28.5✓ W Gregory Steube (R)63.8%
Andrea Doria Kale (D)35.5%
THEODORE âPINK TIEâ MURRAY (I)0.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
412,397 votes · R+31.0✓ W Gregory Steube (R)64.6%
Allen Ellison (D)34.1%
Theodore "pink Tie" Murray (I)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
452,705 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+18.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Joe Biden (D)42.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
310,520 votes · R+24.5✓ Greg Steube (R)62.3%
Allen Ellison (D)37.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
338,675 votes · R+28.7✓ Thomas J Rooney (R)61.8%
April Freeman (D)34.2%
John W Sawyer III (I)3.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
368,252 two-party votes · R+15.2 · R+17.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.4%