Democratic
Jonny Larsen
U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $53.6K
- From individuals
- $17K
- Spent
- $52.5K
- Cash on hand
- $1.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Utah › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah's 4th District
Kennedy is very likely to win: Kennedy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Larsen (D)
1%
chance of winning
Kennedy (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+20.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- 1in our database
Kennedy is very likely to win: Kennedy wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Larsen (D)
3%
chance of winning
Kennedy (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+16.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+34
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Kennedy
Incumbent U.S. representative for the 3rd district
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $511K
- Spent
- $857.9K
- Cash on hand
- $465.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Larsen | Kennedy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 8–Sep 17 | 513 LV | 33 | 42 | R+9 | R+10.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 17, 2026.
The district
Lean R+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 865,729
- People per km²
- 15
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 48%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 1%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
363,598 votes · R+35.5✓ Burgess Owens (R)63.4%
Katrina Fallick-Wang (D)30.2%
Vaughn R. Cook (UUP)4.8%
M. Evan Bullard (I)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
393,853 two-party votes · R+33.5 · R+32.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.7%
Kamala Harris (D)33.3%
2022 Earlier district lines
254,056 votes · R+30.7✓ Burgess Owens (R)61.1%
Darlene McDonald (D)32.3%
January Walker (UUP)6.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
377,317 votes · R+1.1✓ Burgess Owens (R)47.6%
Ben McAdams (D)46.6%
John Molnar (L)3.5%
Jonia M Broderick (UUP)2.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
372,122 two-party votes · R+34.6 · R+39.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.3%
Joe Biden (D)32.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
270,493 votes · D+0.3✓ Ben McAdams (D)49.9%
Mia B Love (R)49.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
274,570 votes · R+12.9✓ Mia B Love (R)53.6%
Doug Owens (D)41.4%
Collin R Simonsen (CST)5.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
196,233 two-party votes · R+41.9 · R+44.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.1%