Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 17th District
FusionProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (84%).
Conley is clearly favored to win: Conley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Conley (D)
84%
chance of winning
Lawler (R)
16%
- Average margin
- D+5.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 4in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (85%).
Conley is clearly favored to win: Conley wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Conley (D)
85%
chance of winning
Lawler (R)
15%
- Average margin
- D+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+2 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 4in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Cait Conley
Former senior advisor to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.3M
- From individuals
- $3.8M
- Spent
- $3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Lawler
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $10M
- From individuals
- $3.8M
- Spent
- $7.3M
- Cash on hand
- $2.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.19 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -6.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -6.44 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Conley | Lawler | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates for Lawler's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 400 LV | 47 | 50 | R+3 | D+6.0 |
| Emerson College for WPIX | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 400 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | D+3.7 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Jul 20–Jul 22 | 1,292 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 | R+0.2 |
| FM3 Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jun 27–Jul 1 | 509 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 | D+1.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 30, 2026.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,774
- People per km²
- 332
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 49%
- White, no degree
- 29%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 7%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
379,507 votes · R+6.0✓ Michael Lawler (R)52.1%
Mondaire L. Jones (D)46.2%
Anthony Frascone (WF)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
386,450 two-party votes · D+0.6 · D+2.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
285,430 votes · R+0.6✓ Michael V Lawler (R)50.3%
Sean Patrick Maloney (D)49.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
332,784 votes · D+25.4✓ Mondaire Jones (D)59.3%
Maureen McArdle Schulman (R)35.3%
Yehudis Gottesfeld (C)2.7%
Joshua Eisen (OTH)1.9%
Michael I Parietti (OTH)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
381,656 two-party votes · D+10.2 · D+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.1%
Donald Trump (R)44.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
193,507 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nita M Lowey (D)87.9%
Joseph J Ciardullo (REF)12.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
216,585 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Nita M Lowey (D)99.1%
Writein (—)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
330,746 two-party votes · D+8.4 · D+6.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.2%
Donald Trump (R)45.8%