Democratic
Joshua Kolasinski
Small business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $24.6K
- From individuals
- $15.3K
- Spent
- $21.6K
- Cash on hand
- $3.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 4th District
Jordan is very likely to win: Jordan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kolasinski (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Jordan (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Jordan is very likely to win: Jordan wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Kolasinski (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Jordan (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+34.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+46 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Jim Jordan
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.5M
- From individuals
- $3.8M
- Spent
- $8.4M
- Cash on hand
- $4.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 775,841
- People per km²
- 56
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 68%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
399,202 votes · R+36.9✓ Jim Jordan (R)68.5%
Tamie Wilson (D)31.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
392,403 two-party votes · R+43.1 · R+41.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.5%
Kamala Harris (D)28.5%
2022 Earlier district lines
290,156 votes · R+38.4✓ Jim Jordan (R)69.2%
Tamie Wilson (D)30.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
347,626 votes · R+39.7✓ Jim Jordan (R)67.9%
Shannon M Freshour (D)29.3%
Steve Perkins (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
387,456 two-party votes · R+41.1 · R+45.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.5%
Joe Biden (D)29.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
257,405 votes · R+30.5✓ Jim Jordan (R)65.3%
Janet Garrett (D)34.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
309,208 votes · R+36.0✓ Jim Jordan (R)68.0%
Janet Garrett (D)32.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
343,021 two-party votes · R+41.5 · R+43.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)29.3%