Democratic
Paul Barringer
Attorney and healthcare consultant
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $698.2K
- Spent
- $676.2K
- Cash on hand
- $508.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 13th District
Knott is clearly favored to win: Knott wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Barringer (D)
9%
chance of winning
Knott (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+9.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Knott is clearly favored to win: Knott wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Barringer (D)
15%
chance of winning
Knott (R)
85%
- Average margin
- R+9.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Brad Knott
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $555.8K
- Spent
- $811.3K
- Cash on hand
- $854.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 790,043
- People per km²
- 81
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 43%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 19%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
415,494 votes · R+17.3✓ Brad Knott (R)58.6%
Frank Pierce (D)41.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
423,170 two-party votes · R+16.4 · R+14.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.2%
Kamala Harris (D)41.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
277,346 votes · D+3.2✓ Wiley Nickel (D)51.6%
Bo Hines (R)48.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
783,924 votes · R+36.3✓ Ted Budd (R)68.2%
Scott Huffman (D)31.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
449,379 two-party votes · R+17.7 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Joe Biden (D)41.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
286,316 votes · R+6.2✓ Ted Budd (R)51.5%
Kathy Manning (D)45.5%
Tom Bailey (L)1.9%
Robert Corriher (G)1.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
355,492 votes · R+12.2✓ Ted Budd (R)56.1%
Bruce Davis (D)43.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
346,193 two-party votes · R+20.9 · R+23.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.5%
Also on the ballot in North Carolina
Neighboring districts
NC-1Don DavisLaurie Buckhout71%Dem.65%Dem. NC-2Deborah RossEugene Douglass>99%Dem.>99%Dem. NC-3Raymond Smith Jr.Greg Murphy85%Rep.75%Rep. NC-4Valerie FousheeMax Ganorkar>99%Dem.>99%Dem. NC-5Chuck HubbardVirginia Foxx95%Rep.88%Rep. NC-7Kimberly HardyDavid Rouzer91%Rep.84%Rep. NC-9Richard OjedaRichard Hudson94%Rep.90%Rep.