DemocraticIncumbent
Lauren Underwood
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.8M
- From individuals
- $2.1M
- Spent
- $2.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 14th District
Underwood is very likely to win: Underwood wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Underwood (D)
99%
chance of winning
Marter (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+18.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+28
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Underwood is clearly favored to win: Underwood wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Underwood (D)
94%
chance of winning
Marter (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+14.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+7
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
James Marter
Oswego Public Library Board member and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $203K
- From individuals
- $198K
- Spent
- $165.4K
- Cash on hand
- $41.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 5.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 5.97 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 755,081
- People per km²
- 146
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 39%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 9%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
333,409 votes · D+10.2✓ Lauren Underwood (D)55.0%
James T. "jim" Marter (R)44.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
330,257 two-party votes · D+5.2 · D+6.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.6%
Donald Trump (R)47.4%
2022
236,802 votes · D+8.3✓ Lauren Underwood (D)54.1%
Scott R Gryder (R)45.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
401,238 votes · D+1.3✓ Lauren Underwood (D)50.6%
Jim Oberweis (R)49.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
343,544 two-party votes · D+11.5 · D+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)55.7%
Donald Trump (R)44.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
297,199 votes · D+5.0✓ Lauren Underwood (D)52.5%
Randall M "randy" Hultgren (R)47.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
338,097 votes · R+18.6✓ Randy Hultgren (R)59.3%
Jim Walz (D)40.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
287,647 two-party votes · D+9.2 · D+7.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.6%
Donald Trump (R)45.4%