DemocraticIncumbent
Suhas Subramanyam
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.1M
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $647K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 10th District
Subramanyam is very likely to win: Subramanyam wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Subramanyam (D)
99%
chance of winning
Beckwith (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+20.8
- 80% of outcomes
- D+12 to D+30
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Subramanyam is very likely to win: Subramanyam wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Subramanyam (D)
98%
chance of winning
Beckwith (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+19.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+32
- Partisan lean
- D+11
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dave Beckwith
U.S. Air Force veteran and candidate for this seat in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $107.3K
- From individuals
- $55.3K
- Spent
- $53.1K
- Cash on hand
- $54.3K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.38 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.32 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.32 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 805,669
- People per km²
- 182
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 56%
- White, no degree
- 21%of adults
- White 52%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 9%
- Asian 15%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
413,012 votes · D+4.6✓ Suhas Subramanyam (D)52.1%
Mike W. Clancy (R)47.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,279 two-party votes · D+8.6 · D+10.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%
2022
296,140 votes · D+6.5✓ Jennifer Wexton (D)53.2%
Hung Cao (R)46.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
475,693 votes · D+13.2✓ Jennifer Wexton (D)56.5%
Aliscia N Andrews (R)43.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
437,465 two-party votes · D+20.1 · D+15.6 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.0%
Donald Trump (R)40.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
367,815 votes · D+12.4✓ Jennifer T Wexton (D)56.1%
Barbara J Comstock (R)43.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
400,117 votes · R+5.8✓ Barbara Comstock (R)52.7%
Luann L Bennett (D)46.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
336,578 two-party votes · D+8.0 · D+5.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.0%
Donald Trump (R)46.0%