DemocraticIncumbent
Nellie Pou
Incumbent U.S. Representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $1.8M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
New Jersey › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New Jersey's 9th District
Pou is very likely to win: Pou wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Pou (D)
98%
chance of winning
Pino (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Pou is clearly favored to win: Pou wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Pou (D)
89%
chance of winning
Pino (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+12.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+25
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Rosie Pino
Clifton city councilor
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $437.8K
- From individuals
- $376.8K
- Spent
- $398.2K
- Cash on hand
- $39.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Independent
Terrisa Bukovinac
Former president of Democrats for Life of America and candidate for the 2024 United States presidential election
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.14 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 761,858
- People per km²
- 2,498
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 34%
- White, no degree
- 23%of adults
- White 37%
- Hispanic 43%
- Black 8%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
380,845 votes · D+2.1✓ Nellie Pou (D)49.4%
Billy Prempeh (R)47.4%
Benjamin Taylor (G)1.8%
Bruno Pereira (L)1.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
275,369 two-party votes · R+1.0 · D+0.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.5%
Kamala Harris (D)49.5%
2022
449,952 votes · D+11.6✓ Bill Pascrell, Jr (D)55.0%
Billy Prempeh (R)43.6%
Lea Sherman (SWP)0.7%
Sean Armstrong (L)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
309,542 votes · D+34.7✓ Bill Pascrell Jr (D)65.8%
Billy Prempeh (R)31.9%
Chris Auriemma (OTH)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
306,330 two-party votes · D+18.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.4%
Donald Trump (R)40.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
200,524 votes · D+41.8✓ Bill Pascrell Jr (D)70.2%
Eric P Fisher (R)28.9%
Claudio Belusic (L)0.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
233,343 votes · D+42.7✓ Bill Pascrell Jr (D)69.7%
Hector L Castillo (R)28.0%
Diego Rivera (L)1.4%
Jeff Boss (OTH)0.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
263,753 two-party votes · D+24.7 · D+22.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)62.3%
Donald Trump (R)37.7%