Democratic
Zyon Khalifa
Attorney and air force veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $19.3K
- Spent
- $18.6K
- Cash on hand
- $724
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
South Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina's 2nd District
Wilson is clearly favored to win: Wilson wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Khalifa (D)
12%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
88%
- Average margin
- R+8.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Wilson is favored to win: Wilson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Khalifa (D)
26%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
74%
- Average margin
- R+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Joe Wilson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $971.6K
- From individuals
- $397.8K
- Spent
- $879K
- Cash on hand
- $137.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.97 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.31 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.31 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 769,455
- People per km²
- 93
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 27%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
355,285 votes · R+19.3✓ Joe Wilson (R)59.5%
David Robinson II (D)40.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
359,482 two-party votes · R+14.2 · R+12.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.1%
Kamala Harris (D)42.9%
2022
246,966 votes · R+20.2✓ Joe Wilson (R)60.0%
Judd Larkins (D)39.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
364,215 votes · R+13.3✓ Joe Wilson (R)55.7%
Adair Ford Boroughs (D)42.6%
Kathleen K Wright (CST)1.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
496,024 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+15.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.6%
Joe Biden (D)44.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
257,139 votes · R+14.0✓ Joe Wilson (R)56.3%
Sean Carrigan (D)42.5%
Sonny Narang (OTH)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
304,996 votes · R+25.3✓ Joe Wilson (R)60.2%
Arik Bjorn (D)35.9%
Eddie McCain (OTH)3.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
351,417 two-party votes · R+15.7 · R+17.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.2%