Cross-party nominations
A candidate can be nominated by several parties, such as Working Families or the Independent Party, and the ballot lists all of them next to one name. The forecast counts the candidate's votes once, under their main party.
Oregon › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Oregon's 3rd District
FusionDexter is very likely to win: Dexter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dexter (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Ayles (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+61
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Dexter is very likely to win: Dexter wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Dexter (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Ayles (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+50.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+48
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Maxine Dexter
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $807.9K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $176.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Loran Ayles
Heavy equipment operator
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.18 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.18 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+48: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 701,799
- People per km²
- 190
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 64%
- Hispanic 15%
- Black 5%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 9%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
334,369 votes · D+45.7✓ Maxine E. Dexter (D)67.7%
Joanna Harbour (R)25.2%
David W. Walker (OTH)3.1%
Joe Meyer (G)3.0%
David K. Frosch (CST)0.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
336,879 two-party votes · D+47.6 · D+49.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)73.8%
Donald Trump (R)26.2%
2022
303,334 votes · D+45.3✓ Earl Blumenauer (D)69.9%
Joanna Harbour (R)26.3%
David E Delk (PRG)3.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
470,506 votes · D+51.3✓ Earl Blumenauer (D)73.0%
Joanna Harbour (R)23.5%
Alex C Diblasi (G)1.9%
Josh Solomon (L)1.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
405,053 two-party votes · D+49.6 · D+45.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)74.8%
Donald Trump (R)25.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
384,326 votes · D+57.1✓ Earl Blumenauer (D)72.6%
Tom Harrison (R)19.8%
Marc W Koller (I)5.6%
Gary Lyndon Dye (L)1.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
382,355 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Earl Blumenauer (D)71.8%
David W Walker (I)20.4%
David Delk (PRG)7.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
324,632 two-party votes · D+48.2 · D+46.0 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)74.1%
Donald Trump (R)25.9%